Predicting the Unpredictable                        Designed by: Joshua Jett

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Predicting the Unpredictable:

An Analysis of Weather Maps and Patterns

Joshua S. Jett

Illinois State University

Table of Contents

Term Project:

Analyze the NOAA Website (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/) to explain the processes

that affect the Earth’s atmosphere.

Lesson Title:

Predicting the Unpredictable: An Analysis of Weather Maps and Patterns

Topic Rationale:

By analyzing data from current weather maps, students will learn how today’s weather is affected by numerous variables. At the conclusion of the lesson, students will be able to explain forces that affect the weather and make predictions about atmospheric conditions as required by the Illinois Learning Standards.

Illinois Learning Standard for Science:

12.E.3a  - Analyze and explain large-scale dynamic forces, events and processes that affect the Earth’s land, water and atmospheric systems.

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Identifying the Need for Training

Topic Rationale:

By analyzing data from current weather maps, students will learn how today’s weather is affected by numerous variables. At the conclusion of the lesson, students will be able to explain forces that affect the weather and make predictions about atmospheric conditions as required by the Illinois Learning Standards.

Goal Statement:

Weather unites us all. Its impacts affect our daily choices and conversations. The uncertainty of weather and its reputation of unpredictability often haunt it with a mysterious overcast. But in reality, several variables in weather can be tracked in a scientific manner and interpreted to forecast the weather. With the advent of the Internet, new resources are available for all to decipher the “mystery” of weather so that when contemplating the heavens we may all have insight rather than confusion and awe in place of fear.

By the completion of this lesson, eighth grade students will familiarize themselves with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s national Weather Service website in order to: (1) compare three types of weather maps, (2) analyze data from current maps, (3) identify variables that affect weather, (4) predict atmospheric conditions in four cities in the United States, and (5) explain conclusions to an objective audience. And therefore students will complete Goal 12.E.3a of the Illinois Learning Standards in Science states that middles school students will be able to “analyze and explain large-scale dynamic forces, events and processes that affect the Earth’s land, water and atmospheric systems”.

Context & Tool Description:

The instruction for this course will be presented in a one-hour lesson in a computer lab. Class sizes average 25 students. Personal computers with Internet access will be required for each participant. Eighth grade students will be required to complete this study of the NOAA website as part of their weather unit and attainment of Goal 12 of the Illinois Learning Standards. A teacher will facilitate the group learning while providing time for individual exploration and investigation. Each learner will be supplied a Prediction Strategy Worksheet to guide him/her from concrete to abstract concepts.

Major Steps:

Ø      Compare three types of weather maps.

·        Warning map

·        National weather map

·        Graphic forecast map (radar and satellite images)

Ø      Locate data on weather maps.

Ø      Identify variables that affect weather.

Ø      Predict atmospheric conditions in four cities in the United States.

·        Evaluate conditions in order to select city that best meets lesson’s goals.

Ø      Defend conclusions to audience of peers.

Goal Classification:

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Learner Analysis

Data Sources:

The information about eighth grade students is based upon this author’s ten years of experience as an instructor in middle schools throughout central Illinois. In addition his Bachelor’s degree major was in middle school education. This program focused on the mental, social, emotional, and physical characteristics of the preadolescent. Further data will be collected through student surveys in order to determine instructional quality and transfer value to student lives.

Prior Skills and Knowledge:

General Characteristics:

All participating students are eighth grade science students in the public school. They range in age from 12- 15 years. The composition of the class will be a wide mixture of culture and diversity. The poverty rate is well above thirty percent of the student population. There are about equal amounts of males and females in each class of 25 pupils.

Adolescents, in general, are a diverse group. There is a large gap between physical and mental development among peers. Typically this group prefers tactile and mobile learning activities versus rote assignments. Just over ten percent of the student population (125) require individual education plans (IEP) or 504 plans to assist their learning. Socially, students at this age are increasingly more dependent upon their peer groups. They also begin the process of constructing their self-identity as they look toward their future. And in preparation of this future independence, they enjoy the chance to independently make real-world decisions that impact their own lives. Therefore they often prefer the opportunity to use and explain the experiences that they bring with them to the course topics.

Specific Characteristics:

            Audiences (No Child Left Behind Subgroups):

1.      White

2.      African American

3.      Hispanic

4.      Students with disabilities

5.      Economically disadvantaged students

            Physical Requirements:

·        Additional resources are provided for students who meet prescribed limitations. These resources include but are not limited to: (1) resource teacher, (2) modified assignments, (3) additional completion time, (4) preferential seating, and (5) assistive technology.

            Specific Educational Requirements:

·        Introductory computer skills (e.g. How to operate a mouse.)

·        Introductory Internet skills

            Academic Motivation:

There is a wide variety of motivation levels across the student population, however, relocating to the IMC lab is always an instant attention grabber for all students. The change in scenery is enthusiastically welcomed. In general the students eagerly await the chance to interact with computers. Most favor the kinesthetic hands-on activities that promise real-life application. Similarly, students also share an interest in learning about weather because they seek to answer mysteries that affect them every day.

            Learning Preference:

All learning styles may be represented in any class. Because Internet skills are being taught, most students share a positive attitude about new technology and the kinesthetic approach that this course offers. Another consideration when designing lessons is that student output generally improves when students are provided quality examples at the beginning of instruction.

Additional Data Collection and Rationale:

Before further development of this lesson, additional information would be collected about this age group through student surveys. Surveys including open-ended questions will be developed to promote a variety of answers. Questions would focus on three topics: (1) What area of the weather do you find the most interesting?, (2) What part of the weather is the most mysterious?, (3) What information about the weather could you use the most in your life? The results of interviewing a random selection of students would provide the instructional designer with a multitude of ideas to incorporate into the lesson opposed to a Likert survey that would limit participants’ answers. 

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Contextual Analysis

Data Sources:

The information about eighth grade students is based upon this author’s ten years of experience as an instructor in middle schools throughout central Illinois. In addition his Bachelor’s degree major was in middle school education. This program focused on the mental, social, emotional, and physical characteristics of the preadolescent. Further data will be collected through student surveys in order to determine instructional quality and transfer value to student lives.

Orienting Context:

Participants of this lesson may attend with different goals in mind. Some may strive to earn the top grade in the class, others may desire to find answers to long-kept questions, and a few may just hope to barely pass. Whether students are striving for intrinsic or extrinsic rewards, the challenge of the instructor is to demonstrate the ability to systematically examine the invisible atmosphere on earth. In order to ensure accountability, grades will be given for completion of the Prediction Strategy worksheet and final presentation.

Instructional Context:

Facilities

Instruction will take place in a computer lab (no more than 25 stations). Arrangements will be made for the instructor to inspect the facility with the IMC coordinator prior to the class meetings in order to determine issues such as temperature, lighting, and sound. The instructor’s demonstration module will be centrally located for all participants to view.

Equipment

Each participant will have access to his own Internet-ready computer. An LCD projector will be connected with the instructor’s computer and directed toward a centrally located screen for all to view.

Constraints

Certain items cannot be controlled by the instructor/designer, but should be considered:

·        Student absences

·        The schedule for the lessons should occur during the class periods.

·        The timing of the lesson should coincide with the appropriate unit of study preferably in Fall or Spring when major weather phenomena frequently occur.

Personnel

There will be only one qualified teacher and resource teacher for each lesson. Students will be provided a science textbook and Prediction Strategy worksheet to assist with directions.

Transfer Context

The purpose of this learning activity is to enable students to use weather maps and strengthen their capacity to evaluate the information using their own faculties. This goal will be achieved by providing students time to examine resources that they may use on a daily basis. A Prediction Strategy worksheet will prompt students to see the real-life application of this exercise, and increase the transfer of knowledge. A confirmative evaluation will be taken periodically to determine the number of participants who are actually able to utilize these new skills and apply the benefits to their lives.

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Conducting Task Analysis

Selected Major Step:

Examine the “Local Forecast” chart. (This step is blocked in for easy reference.)

A.     To pull up the NOAA website, click on the Internet icon (Internet Explorer, etc.) and enter the website’s address (URL).

1. Locate the “Address” space in the upper left portion of the screen, and delete the text (www…).

2. Type in the NOAA website’s URL (http://www.weather.gov/) and hit the <Enter> key.

B.     Examine the national “Warnings & Forecasts” map.

1. Click the “Warnings & Forecasts” map icon along the top of the website.

2. Refer to the color-coded legend at the bottom of the map.

3. Identify active warnings across the nation.

4. Identify the worst place to live (according to the weather) in the nation. Explain.

5. Discuss examples of when this map would be the most beneficial to use.

C.    Examine the “National Maps”.

1. Click the “National Maps” map icon along the top of the website.

2. Locate relevant data.

3. Locate regions of low pressure. Paraphrase the weather in these areas.

4. Locate regions of high pressure. Paraphrase the weather in these areas.

5.  Explain the relationship between isobars and wind speed.

6. Locate regions affected by cold fronts. Explain possible weather forecast.

7. Locate regions affected by warm fronts. Explain possible weather forecast.

8. Discuss examples of when this map would be the most helpful.

D.    Examine the “Geographic Features” map.

1. Click the “Geographic Features” map icon along the top of the website.

2. Click on the six feature maps (Chance of Precipitaion, Weather, Temperature, Wind Speed & Direction, Precipitation Amount, and Sky Cover) at the bottom of the page. Locate relevant data.

3. Discuss the different variables used in each map.

4. Select the “Loop” link at the top of the national map. View animation.

5. Discuss examples of when this information would be the most helpful.

E.     Examine the “Local Forecast” chart.

1. Click the “Warnings & Forecasts” map icon along the top of the website.

2. Type “Bloomington, IL” in the “City, St” space provided in the upper left hand corner of the screen. Press the <ENTER> key.

3. Discuss data location on page (Point Forecast, Forecast at a Glance, Detailed 7-Day Forecast, Current Conditions, Radar Images, Satellite Images, and Additional Forecast Information).

4. Discuss examples of when this information would be most helpful.

F.     Predict 8 day forecast for four cities (New York, Chicago, Houston, and Seattle) in the United States.

1. Follow instructions in Prediction Strategy worksheet.

2. Based upon the predictions for the eight-day outlook, determine the best city to visit in order to see the Total Solar Eclipse.

3. Record your reasons for choosing this city.

4. Defend your choice in class.

G.    Publish results on website.

1. Invite local meteorologists to examine student work and add comments.

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Generating Performance Objectives

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Designing the Instruction: Interest Grabber

Imagine…

            A rare solar eclipse will be visible from most of the United States in only eight days. Four cities around the country are throwing what they claim will be the parties of the century! All of the parties sound exciting, but which city will have the best weather for this heavenly show?

In this web site training, you will learn how to read current weather maps with the purpose of successfully forecasting the weather on the day of the solar eclipse.

Predicting the Unpredictable Instructional Strategy

1.      Gain Attention

This workshop opens by projecting an attractive title slide on the front screen. An enthusiastic teacher will then discuss the interest grabber (printed above) with the students. The instructor will explain that upon completion of this training each student will be able to interpret the same weather maps that meteorologists use.

2.      Inform Learners of Objectives

The instructor will then present the seven learning objectives.

            At the completion of this workshop participants will:

·        choose to interpret weather maps at least twice a quarter.

·        locate regions with severe weather with 90% accuracy.

·        contrast weather conditions between high and low-pressure areas.

·        examine multiple maps to determine which map is most beneficial to forecasting the weather.

·        investigate the components of five out of seven maps.

·        predict the eight day forecast in four U.S. cities with 75% accuracy.

·        debate their forecasts and defend their selection using three or more weather variables.

3.      Stimulate Recall of Prior Learning

In order to connect these new skills with their current knowledge, students will be asked to use their prior knowledge of weather patterns and meteorology.

      Students will be asked to explain:

·        What tools do meteorologist use to predict the weather?

·        What factors influence the weather?

·        What can weather maps show us?

4.      Present Stimulus Material

Using a video projector, the instructor will display the correct steps for accessing resources from the NOAA web site while the students follow along on their own computers.

5.      Provide Learner Guidance

With the aid of a Prediction Strategy Worksheet, students will follow step-by-step instructions. These easy to follow directions are organized around the learning objectives to help the learners better retain the new information.

6.      Elicit Performance

To provide students with additional practice, a Bonus Question will be given after each weather map is examined. In one example students are challenged to determine the most beneficial map to consult when obtaining information about a thunderstorm.

7.      Provide Feedback

Each Bonus will provide immediate feedback to students regarding  their mastery of the intended skill. Success is determined if their screens look exactly like the instructor’s projected image. The instructor will monitor learners’ performances by viewing student output.

8.      Assess Performance

At the conclusion of the workshop, students will debate their choices for the best place to view the upcoming solar eclipse. Students will be considered to have mastered the material if three or more weather variables are correctly applied to the weather maps. Students who do not master the material will be allowed to find their mistakes and modify their performance until they reach mastery level.

9.      Enhance Retention and Transfer

The NOAA web site is designed for easy navigation. However, problems may develop for first-time users. To ensure that students are comfortable with the web site’s layout, students will be asked to review their forecast eight days later using the NOAA web site. The winning predictions will be submitted to a local meteorologist to review.

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Selecting Media and Materials

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Media and Materials List

1.  Video Projector (1)

2.  Computer Lab w/Internet access (25-30)

3.  Copies of Prediction Strategy Worksheets (30)

4.  Instructor’s Bonus Answer Key (1)

5.  Certificates of Mastery (30)

Media Selection Rationale

A group presentation was selected as the main medium through which to disseminate instruction for several reasons:

1.      Group presentations are ideal when demonstrations are required by an expert.

2.      Presentations are often preferred when introducing a new topic (weather web sites) to an audience.

3.      An enthusiastic instructor can create motivation and interest, which could promote students’ use of the web site.

4.      Students are familiar with lecture/demonstrations and therefore feel at ease with the instruction format.

5.      Quality instructors have the ability to evaluate their audience’s abilities and make necessary refinements in the course material in order to achieve the objectives in the limited time parameters of the workshop.

6.      The best instructors are also willing to address student interests.

Limiting Considerations

Group presentations are not perfect. Certain considerations should be enacted to ensure the success of the workshop’s objectives.

1.      Group presentations often lead to passive learning (listening, watching, etc.).

Solution: Students will use the Internet resources to practice new skills during demonstrations.

2.      Questions that are asked at the wrong time may slow the learning for the entire class.

Solution: A Prediction Strategy Worksheet will be provided to assist with instructions. And questions will be permitted only after demonstrations are completed.

All other media are used to assist learners with alternate learning styles or possible disabilities. These media forms are designed to act as supplements and not meant to replace the primary method of instructional transmission (group presentation).

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General and Specific Formative Evaluation Plans

General Formative Evaluation Plan *

* The formative evaluation plan table is adapted from the table in Designing Effective Instruction by Gary Morrison, Steven Ross, and Jerrold Kemp on page 319.

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Specific Formative Evaluation Plan #1 (One-on-One Trial)

Course: Predicting the Unpredictable: An Analysis of Weather Maps and Patterns

Facilitator: Josh Jett

Evaluator: Subject Matter Expert (Fellow teacher- B. Huffaker)

Date: At the completion of the student Prediction Strategy Worksheet milestone.

Targets:

·        Student Prediction Strategy Worksheet (instructional aid)

·        Lesson objectives

·        Bonus (practice) activities

Technique:

·        One-to–One (SME) Formative Evaluation

Purpose:

·        To confirm that the course objectives, steps, and bonus activities reflect desired instruction.

Questions:

1.      Does the Prediction Strategy Worksheet cover the appropriate instruction and skills needed to access web site?

2.      Are the steps on the Prediction Strategy Worksheet properly outlined and evenly paced?

3.      Are the objectives appropriate for the target audience (8^th grade students)?

4.      Are the objectives appropriate for the one-hour lesson time requirement?

5.       Will the prepared activities (Bonuses) ensure acquisition of the desired skills?

6.      Do you have any other recommendations?

Procedure:

1.      Thank the SME for donating her time and expertise.

2.      Ask the SME to write down any comments she has as she reviews the preliminary lesson.

3.      Briefly discuss the purpose of the course and the desired learner outcomes.

4.      Explain the formative evaluation procedure.

5.      Guide the SME through the Instructional Analysis Map.

6.      Discuss the instructional objectives with the SME.

7.      Examine the bonus activities with the SME.

8.      Ask the SME for additional feedback.

9.      Thank the SME for her valued help.

Materials:

·        Hardcopy of Instructional Analysis Map

·        Hardcopy of Instructional Objectives

·        Hardcopy of Student Prediction Strategy Worksheet

·        Hardcopy of bonus activities (practice exercises)

·        Networked computer workstation

·        Interview questions

Specific Formative Evaluation Plan #2 (Small-group Trial)

Course: Predicting the Unpredictable: An Analysis of Weather Maps and Patterns

Facilitator: Josh Jett

Evaluator: Five 8^th-grade students

Date: After revisions from the first formative evaluation have been completed.

Targets:

·        Updated version of curriculum

·        Audience attitudes

Technique:

·        Small-group Trial (5 Students)

Purpose:

·        To analyze the advantages and disadvantages of this initial course.

Questions:

1.      Would you recommend this lesson to a friend?

2.      Were materials helpful?

3.      Should additional aids be created?

4.      What steps were confusing or led to problems?

5.      Were you provided enough time to complete all of the activities?

6.      What sections did you like/dislike?

7.      What improvements would you recommend?

Procedure:

1.      Thank the participants for volunteering their time.

2.      Ask participants to write down questions, thoughts, and feelings during the presentation to discuss in the debriefing session.

3.      Discuss the aims of the formative evaluation with the participants. Collect parent media release slips in order to videotape the class and to review for later improvements.

4.      Present the workshop exactly as it is designed.

5.      Record observations of students’ questions, expressions, and comments as instruction is delivered.

6.      Provide participants with time to finish writing their impressions of the course.

7.      Discuss student comments and FE questions with the small group.

8.      Ask participants for recommendations.

9.      Thank participants for their help.

Materials:

·        Pens and notebooks for participants’ observations

·        Videotape equipment and staff

·        All workshop materials:

1.  Video Projector (1)

2.  Computer Lab w/Internet access (5)

3.  Copies of Prediction Strategy Worksheet (5)

4.  Instructor’s Bonus Answer Key & Lesson Plan (1)

5.  Completion Certificates (5)

Specific Formative Evaluation Plan #3 (Field Trial)

Course: Predicting the Unpredictable: An Analysis of Weather Maps and Patterns

Facilitator: Josh Jett

Evaluator: One class of eighth graders

Date: After revisions from the second formative evaluation have been completed.

Targets:

·        Objectives-Based Study – To determine how well the objectives are met through the instructional curriculum.

Technique:

·        Field test

·        Pretest-posttest delivered

Purpose:

·        To evaluate the course performance.

Questions:

Constructed-response questions will be focused around the seven instructional objectives. These questions will be asked at the beginning and ending of FE #3 to determine the degree of change in the class’ abilities and attitudes during the course of this lesson. Sample questions include:

1.      What are the advantages of reading weather maps?

2.      How many times a month do you plan on using weather maps?

3.      In your opinion, how can online maps improve your choices in life?

4.      What map would you consult if you needed a quick report of today’s weather?

5.      Why is it important to consult multiple weather maps when predicting the weather?

6.      What clues can you use to predict the weather?

7.      What characteristics must good meteorologists have?

Procedure:

1.      Thank the participants for volunteering their time.

2.      Discuss the aims of the formative evaluation with the participants.

3.      Ask participants to complete a pretest assessment.

4.      Present the workshop exactly as it is designed.

5.      Record observations of students’ questions, expressions, and comments as instruction is delivered.

6.      Ask participants to complete the posttest assessment.

7.      Thank participants for their help.

8.      Evaluate participants’ responses and categorize answers into subcategories (Above Standards, Meets Standards, Below Standards) by objectives.

Materials:

·        Pens for participants’ assessments

·        Copies of pretest and posttest

·        Rubric

·        All workshop materials:

1.  Video Projector (1)

2.  Computer Lab w/Internet access (25-30)

3.  Copies of Prediction Strategy Worksheet (30)

4.  Instructor’s Bonus Answer Key & Lesson Plan (1)

5.  Completion Certificates (30)

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Developing Evaluation Instruments

General Summative Evaluation Plan

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Summative Evaluation Instrument

Checklist for Evaluating Students’ Learning from Course

Since most of the instruction in this lesson is focused on learning new Internet skills, a checklist is an inexpensive and practical method of evaluating students’ skills in an efficient amount of time. A checklist helps to determine whether a skill is achieved, but does not reflect the quality of the skill. Because this is an introductory lesson, the application of the skill is of the utmost importance. The mastery of the skill will develop with consistent practice.

Instructions:

1.      There are six questions that relate to the workshop’s objectives.

2.      Call the instructor when you are able to demonstrate the skill. The instructor will check the box that applies to your skill performance. You will be allowed to retry a skill to improve your score. You are only limited by the lesson’s time frame of one hour.

3.      A score of 80% or higher is considered mastery level. Good Luck!

Checklist for Learning Skills:

Based on Morrison, Ross, and Kemp (2004) Designing Effective Instruction (page 294).
 

Scoring Guide:

There are two ways to analyze this skill checklist: Pretest-Posttest Analysis or Class Average Analysis.

Pretest-Posttest Analysis:

The checklist could be used at the beginning of the workshop and at the conclusion to determine learners’ skill development. This could easily be accomplished by asking students to demonstrate the skills before the lesson began and then again once it concluded. The analysis of these improvements could then be published.

Class Average Analysis:

This checklist could also be quantified to compute the class performance on individual objectives and their overall performance. The charts below display how the results could be organized. The class average could be calculated by counting the total achieved skills (34) and dividing by the total possible (6 students X 6 questions = 36). The result is over 94%, which indicates that overall the class demonstrated mastery (80%) of the new Internet skills. Once the objectives or class performance has been computed, this data could then be published.

A Sample Analysis of a Skill Checklist Measuring Cognitive Objectives:

Based on Morrison, Ross, and Kemp (2004) Designing Effective Instruction (page 322).

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References

Morrison, G.R., Ross, S.M, & Kemp, J.E. (2004). Designing Effective Instruction, 4^th

Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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